The pollster comes to Jakarta. Peter Hart, the number cruncher for the Wall Street Journal and the TV networks, gave a talk at the request of the USINDO society to explain the mood of US voters and answer the all important question for Indonesian's: Will Obama win?
Obama spent part of his childhood in Jakarta where he was educated (not at an Islamic school), and he might as well be their hometown candidate. [There he is in the middle]. People are fascinated by the process too: the world's most advanced democracy (supposedly) battles it out for all to see. The stakes are a new world order for four years. Great drama. It's clear who would win if the election happened here; even the taxi drivers give me a thumbs up, "Obama." Although based on our current reputation I'm sure a Mexican Chihuahua could win office, as long as he didn't support the current policies.
Hart starts his talk, a Beltway joke is too painful to repeat here . The theme, wait for it, is for change.
What is change? Change means two things. For older, conservative folks (read, often, Republicans), change is about "what's below us," the floorboards supporting us in the past immigration, smaller government, and American values. This is 37% of Americans. For liberals or Democrats (which is the majority of American's these days, depending on how you measure it -- 59%, says Hart), it's about where we're going tomorrow: health care, competing in a globalized economy and reestablishing our reputation in the world. The dependable "don't knows" comprise just 4%.
The big issues are pretty simple. We're in a war (Iraq). We're in a recession (economy, toilet, swirl). This makes it one of the most fertile fields for Democratic victory since 1932 and perhaps not a surprise that Obama leads McCain 47-40 points. Mostly, it seems, this is about wanting to dig ourself out of the latrine.
McCain may find it difficult to find a shovel. "In an era of change," says Hart, "people perceive him as no change at all." Voters barely identified him with "a change in direction" (19%) and "inspirational" (22%). Not exactly revolutionary material. Still, he polls higher than half on knowledge (64%) and as a commander in chief (52%); Obama is still a third or less on both. This may be Obama's final weakness. His numbers are stratospheric as an easy-going (69%) and strong leader (47%); and more than McCain, you would put him in your family circle. But it's not clear if people trust him, or that is safe (right, Iowa). If that's in question, Hart says, people will default to McCain.
The pollsters are sometimes wrong, but their data usually isn't. The seismic shifts show up early as small tremors. By the time the election gets closer, data will hone in on a winner. Without more New Yorker covers, or 100-years war comments, we should know pretty well before the election -- although TV will dissect every percentage point -- who's got the odds.
Hart says the numbers to watch are simple:
1) Party identification. Democrats have an 11 point advantage. Even they may have a hard time lousing that up, but I have faith in their ability to do it.
2) How many people believe McCain will follow Bush: 76% If that number doesn't nose dive, McCain can forget it.
3) Does the candidate identify with your background and values? This stands at 50% for Obama. If it dips below 30%, he's out of the game.
There's the scorecard. Some intriguing ideas came up there -- idealism breaking through the partisan fog (Hart obviously has a sweet spot for Obama). Hart was surprised no third-party had emerged to compete for the Presidency. What it will take? A Republican president and Democratic Congress with the lowest approval ratings in history, and a third-party doesn't even get a spot at the debate, let alone bury the other parties. Sad.
Finally, he described what he thought was at the bottom of this election, and perhaps in every one ,although the last two would suggest not. People want transparency, authenticity and unity. Imagine a presidential team that went up and said we will work for the American people, my vice-president has pledged not to run for office in the next election and we're stepping away from partisan warfare. We can imagine.
PS: Environment matched terrorism (both around 13-15%) as an important issue. Well, what do you know.
